Texas Crop and Weather Report
Dry conditions prevail across Texas, and rainfall outlooks are raising concerns about hay supplies and grazing in the near term and production potential this coming season, according to Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service experts.
Vanessa Corriher Olson, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension forage specialist and professor, Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, Overton, said livestock producers continue to deplete hay supplies and the verdict is still out on warm-season haying prospects.
“Folks likely have supplies left over from last year, however the quality might be questionable,” Corriher Olson said. “We are currently dry with some parts of the state in a drought, so things don’t look very promising now. Looking at the long-range forecast, it appears we should expect above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall.”
Beyond drought, an invasive pest found in South Texas pastures – the pasture mealy bug – is raising concerns among hay producers.
“If it spreads, it could be devastating to a lot of forage and hay producers,” she said.
Surplus drawdown
Though 2025 was a bumper hay crop for most, that initial surplus has proven to be a salvation for drought-plagued regions of the state. Some AgriLife Extension agent reports in drier areas of the state indicate tightening hay supplies, while other areas remain well stocked.
Round bale pricing varies from $75-$85 on average for Texas, according to a recent U.S. Department of Agriculture Texas Direct Hay Report. Premium round bales were between $110-$145.
“We still have a surplus of hay from the major hay providers,” said Shane McLellan, AgriLife Extension agriculture and natural resources agent, McLennan County. “Most livestock people have dipped fairly deep into their hay supplies, but I know there’s a lot of hay left over and prices are reduced drastically. We just made so much hay last summer that it’s expected to carry over into next year.”
Drought influences grazing, supplemental feeding
McLellan said the Central Texas region is 8 inches below normal rainfall since September. Lines of recent moisture helped some but were not enough to significantly improve early spring grazing outlooks and pasture recovery.
“We did receive 0.6 to 0.7 of an inch over much of our area,” he said. “That helped a lot as pastures are trying to green up and there is available moisture for planting. As you get into Bell County they are in better shape, moisture-wise, and the same as you go east.”
He said McLennan and Limestone counties “are kind of on the edge of the drier area as you head east.”
“We need a multi-inch rain to break this cycle of dry weather,” he said.
South Central Texas hay conditions
Hay supplies remained in good shape in Brazos County and surrounding areas, but lack of rainfall and freeze damage in January have set winter forages back. These forages are bouncing back with recent rain and sunshine, but hay will be needed to supplement cattle diets until warm-season forages kick in, said Chadd Caperton, AgriLife Extension agriculture and natural resources agent for Brazos County.
Looking ahead, Caperton said supplies are likely to tighten further.
“The weather outlook isn’t strong so we’re expecting hay supplies and new cuttings to be low,” he said. “We hope the pattern changes, but it’s not been encouraging so far.”
AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the following summaries:
Panhandle
A map of the 12 Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service districts.
Overall soil moisture levels were very short to short. High winds pulled moisture from the soil profile and brought additional topsoil erosion across landscapes without cover crops or crop residue. The winds also pushed several major wildfires. Pasture and range conditions were very poor to fair, and winter wheat was poor to fair.
South Plains
Conditions were dry with above-average temperatures and extreme winds. In some areas, irrigation started on small grains. Winter wheat was in poor to fair condition. Grazing was available for livestock in some areas, but producers were relying on supplemental feed. Some started shipping livestock.
Rolling Plains
Overall, winter wheat conditions were improving due to recent rainfall and warm temperatures, with some counties reporting significant moisture gains of up to 2 inches. Wheat pastures and winter grasses were greening up, and cattle body conditions were improving. Fertilizer top dressing and weed control applications were underway. However, dry winds and warm weather reduced moisture levels in some locations, increasing fire danger and leaving crops struggling in drought conditions. Recent rains provided temporary relief, but many areas needed additional rainfall to sustain crop progress, refill stock tanks and improve pasture growth. Supplemental feeding of livestock remained common.
North
Most fields looked good after recent rainfall. Ryegrass and other cool-season forages were growing rapidly with increased rainfall. Topsoil and subsoil levels were very short to adequate. Pasture and range conditions were fair to good. Winter wheat was doing well and started to progressing following rain and sunshine. Livestock conditions were good to excellent.
East
Temperatures were very cool in the morning to above average in the afternoons. Most counties remained dry. Subsoil and topsoil conditions were short to adequate. Some counties shared concerns about fire dangers. Pasture and rangeland conditions were fair. Pond, creek and lake levels dropped significantly. Producers began soil testing. Cattle markets remained strong. Livestock were in fair to good condition with supplementation taking place. Feral hog control was underway.
Far West
Recent rainfall events varied widely, with some counties receiving 1-1.5 inches of rain while other areas remained dry as windy conditions quickly evaporated surface moisture. Limited soil moisture continued to raise concerns about yield potential. Conditions remained mostly normal with seasonally warmer temperatures causing winter wheat to break dormancy earlier than usual. Wheat and oat fields were generally in fair to good shape, but overgrazing was evident in certain pastures. Pecan harvest was nearing completion with cleaning operations wrapping up for the season, and orchard irrigation with effluent and brackish well water was ongoing. Ground preparation continued for cotton and some alfalfa, though water allotments were expected to remain very low. Established alfalfa stands may survive on reduced water but with lower yields. Fieldwork continued where moisture allowed, and drip irrigation preparations began for cotton acres. Cattle producers were preparing for upcoming spring activities, including branding season. Pasture and range conditions ranged from very poor to fair, with many areas reporting poor conditions. Livestock conditions were stable to slightly improved overall, with continued supplemental feeding of hay and feed. Feral hogs continued to cause issues in wheat and oat fields near creeks and towns.
West Central
Abnormally dry conditions prevailed. Drought continued to intensify with temperatures in the 70s and low-80s. Winter grasses were green but very short. Menard County reported 0.5 of an inch of rain that helped winter wheat. Wildfire potential increased with elevated winds. Moisture was needed to improve rangeland conditions.
Central
Pastures improved slightly with increased temperatures and added soil moisture. Conditions were still very dry with lots of fuel in most areas, and wildfires were a major concern. Stock tank levels remained full. Wheat and oats were not growing well due to hard freezes. Some producers were starting to plant corn. Cattle were still being fed supplemental cubes and hay.
Southeast
Dry conditions continued as corn planting began. Winter forages stunted by a hard freeze showed improvement after receiving 1.5 inches of rain. Livestock diets were still supplemented with hay and other feed. Warmer weather encouraged warm-season grasses to break dormancy. Wheat looked good and pastures were beginning to green up with fertilizer applications timed ahead of the rain. Fire danger was high due to dry conditions and increased winds.
Southwest
Conditions remained dry. Trace amounts of precipitation were reported. No additional measurable rainfall was received. Soil moisture levels continued to decline for spring planting and pasture conditions. Spring weeds were beginning to emerge in bare soil. Cooler temperatures helped maintain soil moisture. High temperatures reached into the mid-80s. Dry and windy weather increased fire hazards. Moisture was critically needed for farmers to begin planting corn and sorghum. Pastures were beginning to green up, and small grains were showing slight improvement in some areas. Supplemental feeding of livestock continued. Overall, livestock remained in mostly fair condition.
Coastal Bend
Rainfall was very scattered; some areas received spotty showers while much of the district remained extremely dry. Soil moisture was very short to short in most areas. Corn planting was underway where producers had adequate moisture, but many were waiting on rain before moving forward. Winter pastures of oats, wheat and ryegrass were practically non-existent this season. Early spring green-up of annual grasses, forbs and legumes was evident in areas that received more rain. Range and pasture conditions remained very poor to poor in most areas and continued to deteriorate. Hay feeding continued for beef herds, and hay supplies remained tight. Livestock were being supplemented or shipped. Cows looked thin though calves were holding up.
South
Drought conditions continued and worsened throughout the district. Temperatures were on the rise with windy conditions daily. Topsoil and subsoil conditions were very short. Soil moisture remained limited with little to no water available in the local irrigation canal system. Row crop producers with enough moisture began planting corn and grain sorghum crops. Very little field activity was noted as row crop farmers waited for moisture to begin planting. Cotton acreage was expected to be low again, but planting should begin soon. Leafy greens were still showing signs of freeze damage. Oats were in the heading stage, while other fields were being prepared for planting. Onion harvest began with exceptional yields reported. Citrus and cool-season vegetable harvests continued. Conditions were windy, preventing any pre-emergent applications. Range and pasture conditions remained poor, as most pastures showed burnt tops from the recent frost. Hay and feed were in great demand as hay supplies tightened. Producers continued to thin herds. Beef cattle markets continued to run above-average volumes and strong prices for all classes of beef cattle.
