We’ve spent ten weeks together on the Texas electric grid. Here’s a look at where things go from here — and what every household and small business should keep in mind.
Over the past ten weeks, this column has worked through the Texas electricity market from a number of angles: what makes ERCOT different from grids in other states, how prices actually get set, what the data center boom means for everyone else, the realities of summer reliability, the choice between fixed and variable plans, the role of renewables and batteries, the new framework introduced by Senate Bill 6, practical ways to lower your bill, and what we should have learned from Winter Storm Uri.
This final installment looks ahead. Predictions about energy markets are humbling — there are too many moving parts, from regulatory decisions to weather to fuel prices to whether the data center boom fully materializes. But the broad direction is reasonably clear, and the families and small businesses that align their decisions with that direction are likely to fare better than those that don’t.
Five Things to Keep in Mind for the Years Ahead
Electricity is going to keep getting more expensive on average. The forward markets are pricing in tighter conditions, and the underlying drivers — load growth, the cost of new generation, expansion of transmission, higher costs for grid services — are all pointing the same direction. Year-over-year increases of several percent should be assumed as a baseline, with the possibility of larger jumps in years with significant grid events.
Volatility is here to stay. The same factors that pull average prices higher also widen the swings. Expect more frequent grid alerts, more conservative operations notices, and more attention to the few hours per year when system stress concentrates. Households on fixed-rate plans don’t see those swings directly, but they’re the reason fixed-rate prices have been climbing.
Where you live in Texas will matter more. As the data center boom plays out, certain regions will see more transmission investment, more congestion, and different price dynamics than others. The Texas grid that emerges five years from now will be more regionally diverse in its pricing than the one we have today. East Texas may see different effects than North Texas or West Texas.
Renewables and batteries will keep changing the rhythm of the day. As more battery storage comes online, the difference between midday prices and evening prices will continue to compress. That has implications for time-of-use plans, for renewable energy contracting, and for how we should think about when we use power.
The rules will keep changing. Senate Bill 6 was a major piece of legislation, but it won’t be the last. The 2027 legislative session is already shaping up to address transmission cost allocation, further refinements to large-load policy, and a number of other significant questions. The rules of the Texas electricity market are being actively rewritten right now, and they’ll continue to evolve for years to come.
The era of treating electricity as a passive utility cost in Texas is over. The market is too dynamic, the stakes are too high, and the difference between an informed decision and an uninformed one is too large.
What to Do in the Next 90 Days
If there’s one practical message from the entire ten weeks of this column, it’s this: pay attention. The Texas electricity market rewards attention and penalizes neglect. A couple of hours every year or two — looking at your bill, comparing your usage patterns, shopping your plan when it comes up for renewal — is the cheapest investment you can make in your monthly budget.
Three things worth doing in the next 90 days.
- Pull out your most recent electric bill and read it carefully. Identify each line item. If anything looks unfamiliar, look it up. Most providers have decent explanations of their fees on their websites.
- Check when your current plan expires. Calendar a reminder for at least 30 days before that date so you have time to shop.
- Pick one item from the practical tips in Week 8 — a smart thermostat, an HVAC tune-up, weatherstripping, a closer look at your attic insulation — and actually do it before fall.
Closing Thoughts
The Texas grid is going through the most significant transformation in its history. The system that emerges five years from now will look different from the one we have today: more renewables, more storage, dramatically more demand, more high-voltage transmission, and a more sophisticated regulatory framework around it all.
For Texas families and small business owners, that creates both risk and opportunity. The risk is being caught flat-footed by changes that were entirely foreseeable. The opportunity is positioning yourself — through smart contracting, attention to operations, and informed engagement with the market — to come out of the next several years in better shape than your neighbors.
Texas has always been a place that rewards self-reliance and rewards paying attention. The electricity market is no different. The grid will keep doing its job. Your job is to make sure your household or business is positioned to make the most of it.
Thanks for following along over these ten weeks. The conversation about Texas electricity is one of the most consequential ones happening in our state right now. It’s been good to share part of it with you.
— Lee Miller
Lee Miller publishes Texas Forest Country Living and is co-founder of Amerigy Energy, a Texas-based electricity brokerage.
